The IMF sees Africa growing 4.3% this year. Oil decides who gains

The headline looks steady. The IMF told journalists at its spring meetings on 16 April that sub-Saharan Africa should grow 4.3% in 2026. That is 0.3 percentage points lower than it projected before the war in the Middle East began. The detail beneath that number is less steady.

Inflation turns back up

Median inflation across the region fell to 3.4% at the end of 2025, from 4.8% a year earlier. The IMF expects it to rise to 5% by the end of 2026. The cause is imported prices. The war has pushed up the cost of oil, gas and fertiliser, along with shipping, and has disrupted trade, tourism and remittances linked to the Gulf.

Exporters and importers part ways

The IMF said oil exporters "may benefit from higher revenues" but face volatility and the risk of spending that rises and falls with prices. Importers face a different picture: weaker trade balances, higher living costs and limited buffers. Abebe Selassie, director of the IMF's African department, told them there is "real room" to protect priority spending and raise more revenue at home.

Financial conditions have also tightened for fuel-importing countries, the IMF said. That makes the cost of borrowing a second pressure on the same economies.

Aid is shrinking too

The IMF also pointed to a likely structural decline in official development assistance, which it said will hit fragile and low-income states hardest. For those countries, the oil shock arrives with less outside support to absorb it.

What it means for companies

For a business that pays suppliers abroad or earns in a local currency, the effect runs through exchange rates and funding costs more than through the growth number. An importer of fuel or fertiliser sees its costs rise in dollar terms. An exporter of energy sees revenue rise, but less predictably. Both are reasons to watch exchange rates and funding costs as closely as the growth forecast.

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